`## Loading required package: idem`

`## Loading required package: Rcpp`

In randomized studies involving severely ill patients, functional outcomes are often unobserved due to missed clinic visits, premature withdrawal or death. It is well known that if these unobserved functional outcomes are not handled properly, biased treatment comparisons can be produced.

*R* package **idem** implement a procedure for comparing treatments that is based on the composite endpoint of both the functional outcome and survival. The procedure considers missing data imputation with a sensitivity analysis strategy to handle the unobserved functional outcomes not due to death.

In dataset accepted by **idem**, each row should represent a subject with treatment assignment, baseline coveraites, baseline outcome, post-randomization outcomes and survival time.

The **idem** package provides dataset *abc* from *ABC* trial as an example data set.

```
## AGE TRT SURV Y1 Y2
## 1 59.63 1 999 NA NA
## 2 66.89 0 999 49 52
## 3 59.70 1 1 NA NA
## 4 81.41 0 72 NA NA
## 5 66.52 1 999 51 45
## 6 40.27 0 65 NA NA
```

There are four major steps in conducting imputation and inference using **idem**. First, a class *IDEMDATA* object should be generated by the function *imData*. Second, the imputation models will be fit to the data observed from the completers by the function *imFitModel*. Third, imputation can be conducted by the function *imImpAll*. Lastly, treatment effect estimation and hypothesis testing can be performed by function *imInfer*.

In this step, the original dataset with specification parameters will be combined and checked. These parameters include variable names in the dataset, endpoint specification, duration of the study, etc.. If there is mis-specification, error messages will be generated. Otherwise, a class *IDEMDATA* object will be generated with certain data visulation functions implemented as its S3 methods.

```
rst.data <- imData(abc, trt="TRT", outcome=c("Y1","Y2"), y0=NULL,
endfml="Y3", bounds=c(10,20), duration=365,
err.terminate = FALSE);
print(rst.data);
```

```
## Model specification is invalid. Please check the following:
## No survival time specified
## Endpoint formula error: Error in eval(substitute(expr), data, enclos = parent.frame()) : object 'Y3' not found
## Upper bound is smaller than some observed outcomes
```

```
rst.data <- imData(abc, trt="TRT", surv="SURV", outcome=c("Y1","Y2"),
y0=NULL, endfml="Y2",
trt.label = c("UC+SBT", "SAT+SBT"),
cov=c("AGE"), duration=365, bounds=c(0,100));
```

The class *IDEMDATA* provides S3 plot and summary methods with multiple options for the visualization of the data.

```
## Y1 Y2 UC.SBT SAT.SBT
## Deaths on study 58 (62%) 38 (41%)
## S=1 Observed Observed 18 (19%) 32 (34%)
## S=2 Observed Missing 8 (9%) 8 (9%)
## S=3 Missing Observed 1 (1%) 0 (0%)
## S=4 Missing Missing 9 (10%) 15 (16%)
## Total 94 93
```

To fit the imputation model to data observed from the completers, i.e.Â the subjects who were alive at the end of the study without missing data, the class *IDEMDATA* object needs to be passed to the function *imFitModel* as parameters. The result has class name **IDEMFIT**, which will be passed to imputation functions.

The goodness of fit diagnostics plots can be generated by the S3 plot method implemented for class *IDEMFIT*:

The MCMC sampling is primarily done by **rstan**. It is suggested that the convergence of the MCMC chains should be checked. This can be done by the **imImpSingle** function which imputes missing data for an individual subject under the benchmark assumption.

```
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 2000 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 200 / 2000 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 400 / 2000 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 600 / 2000 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 800 / 2000 [ 40%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1000 / 2000 [ 50%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1001 / 2000 [ 50%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1200 / 2000 [ 60%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1400 / 2000 [ 70%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1600 / 2000 [ 80%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1800 / 2000 [ 90%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.016697 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.015802 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.032499 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 2000 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 200 / 2000 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 400 / 2000 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 600 / 2000 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 800 / 2000 [ 40%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1000 / 2000 [ 50%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1001 / 2000 [ 50%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1200 / 2000 [ 60%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1400 / 2000 [ 70%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1600 / 2000 [ 80%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1800 / 2000 [ 90%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.015391 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.01467 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.030061 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 2000 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 200 / 2000 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 400 / 2000 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 600 / 2000 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 800 / 2000 [ 40%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1000 / 2000 [ 50%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1001 / 2000 [ 50%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1200 / 2000 [ 60%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1400 / 2000 [ 70%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1600 / 2000 [ 80%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1800 / 2000 [ 90%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.021019 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.014323 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.035342 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 2000 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 200 / 2000 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 400 / 2000 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 600 / 2000 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 800 / 2000 [ 40%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1000 / 2000 [ 50%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1001 / 2000 [ 50%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1200 / 2000 [ 60%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1400 / 2000 [ 70%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1600 / 2000 [ 80%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1800 / 2000 [ 90%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.015866 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.016638 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.032504 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

The following code shows how to use **imImpAll** to get the imputed complete datasets under benchmark assmption **delta=0** and for sensitivity analysis. We use **300** iterations to reduce the computation time.

```
rst.imp <- imImpAll(rst.fit, deltas=c(-0.25,0,0.25),
normal=TRUE, chains = 4, iter = 300, warmup = 100);
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.06, indicating chains have not mixed.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

The result from *imIMPALL* is class *IDEMFIT*. Density plots the imputed outcomes and the imputed functional endpoint can be generated by the S3 plot method associated with class *IDEMFIT*.

Treatment-specific cumulative distribution functions of the composite endpoint, where the values of the composite endpoint are labeled according to the survival time and functional endpoint among survivors, can be plotted by the S3 plot method of class *IDEMFIT*.

The function *imInfer* implements bootstrap analysis for hypothesis testing, point estimation and confidence intervals of the treatment effects.

For illustration, we run **2** bootstrap samples by the following code:

```
## ---- Bootstrap 1
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002981 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005714 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.008695 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002675 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00469 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007365 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002475 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005009 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007484 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002424 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005162 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007586 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 5 : 1 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003378 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006667 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010045 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003498 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006621 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010119 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.00428 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007952 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.012232 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004149 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007064 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011213 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 6 : 2 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003308 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006409 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009717 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003593 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00702 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010613 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003375 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.00668 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010055 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003415 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.008098 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011513 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 7 : 3 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002597 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.004992 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007589 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002635 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.004895 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.00753 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002444 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004965 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007409 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002623 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005166 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007789 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 12 : 4 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003437 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.0068 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010237 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00341 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006891 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010301 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003562 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007198 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.01076 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003525 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007053 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010578 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 14 : 5 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004662 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008574 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013236 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004606 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.008116 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.012722 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003487 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007304 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010791 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003283 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006424 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.009707 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 23 : 6 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00326 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006519 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009779 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004053 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006837 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.01089 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003535 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007176 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010711 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003577 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007053 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.01063 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 30 : 7 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002488 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00495 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007438 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002578 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00506 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007638 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002426 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004672 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007098 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002627 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005089 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007716 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 35 : 8 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00378 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006637 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010417 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003761 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00707 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010831 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.00395 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006991 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010941 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003968 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007402 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.01137 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 43 : 9 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004718 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008461 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013179 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004727 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.009035 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.013762 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004119 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.00784 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011959 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003558 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007127 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010685 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 44 : 10 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002454 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.004888 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007342 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002641 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00513 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007771 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002474 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.00477 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007244 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002552 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004951 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007503 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 58 : 11 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002459 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.004795 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007254 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002658 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007658 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.00263 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005003 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007633 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002644 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004905 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007549 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 59 : 12 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002542 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005029 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007571 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002684 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.004823 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007507 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002566 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004868 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007434 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002648 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004838 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007486 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 62 : 13 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004109 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008412 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.012521 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004244 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.008183 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.012427 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003589 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006969 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010558 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004077 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007189 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011266 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 65 : 14 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002466 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.004785 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007251 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002591 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005524 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.008115 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002377 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004932 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007309 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002351 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005165 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007516 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 72 : 15 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002774 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005389 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.008163 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002691 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00501 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007701 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002504 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005083 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007587 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.02 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002617 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004719 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007336 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 83 : 16 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003291 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007259 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.01055 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003572 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00709 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010662 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003825 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007014 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010839 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003808 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.00766 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011468 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 90 : 17 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002929 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.0063 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009229 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00303 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005716 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.008746 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003076 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006218 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.009294 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002956 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005347 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008303 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 92 : 18 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004053 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007266 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011319 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003544 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006932 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010476 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003375 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.00658 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.009955 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003443 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006852 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010295 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.05, indicating chains have not mixed.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 93 : 19 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003339 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006253 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009592 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003343 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007634 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010977 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003439 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007162 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010601 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003539 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006783 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010322 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 95 : 20 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004534 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00769 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.012224 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00426 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.008836 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.013096 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003728 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006636 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010364 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003414 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006656 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.01007 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 104 : 21 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002786 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00513 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007916 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002738 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005363 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.008101 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002592 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005193 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007785 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002692 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004906 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007598 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 107 : 22 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004554 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006987 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011541 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003667 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006602 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010269 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003387 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006365 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.009752 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003321 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006178 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.009499 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 115 : 23 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003165 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006183 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009348 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002999 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005656 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.008655 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002717 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005058 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007775 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002732 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005005 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007737 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 119 : 24 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003485 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007082 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010567 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003336 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006531 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.009867 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003462 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006732 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010194 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003368 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006367 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.009735 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 121 : 25 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003263 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006334 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009597 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003142 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005934 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.009076 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.00274 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004824 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007564 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002522 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004855 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007377 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 124 : 26 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002511 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.004925 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007436 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002523 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.004691 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007214 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002542 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005041 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007583 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002726 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004943 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007669 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 130 : 27 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003545 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006691 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010236 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00329 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006831 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010121 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003168 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007257 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010425 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003775 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007658 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011433 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 135 : 28 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003089 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005492 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.008581 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00258 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.004942 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007522 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002646 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005081 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007727 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.00266 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005135 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007795 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 138 : 29 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003443 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00683 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010273 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003223 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006562 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.009785 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003622 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006506 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010128 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003402 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.00672 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010122 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 139 : 30 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00366 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006955 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010615 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00319 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006288 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.009478 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.00312 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.00635 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.00947 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.00312 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006207 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.009327 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 153 : 31 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002988 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.0056 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.008588 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002729 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.004909 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007638 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002481 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004928 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007409 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.00272 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004934 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007654 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 155 : 32 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003382 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006516 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009898 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003707 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00705 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010757 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003303 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006834 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010137 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003445 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006652 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010097 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 161 : 33 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004248 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008111 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.012359 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00401 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007792 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.011802 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003597 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007002 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010599 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003649 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007009 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010658 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.05, indicating chains have not mixed.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 170 : 34 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003856 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007013 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010869 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003425 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006784 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010209 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003344 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007542 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010886 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003776 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007388 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011164 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 173 : 35 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003807 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008025 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011832 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003708 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007126 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010834 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004047 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.008615 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.012662 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004214 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007926 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.01214 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 174 : 36 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003453 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006654 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010107 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003342 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006809 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010151 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003403 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006798 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010201 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003557 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007174 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010731 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 178 : 37 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003241 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006362 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009603 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003092 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006281 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.009373 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003143 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006085 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.009228 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002833 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005123 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007956 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 184 : 38 out of 38
## ---- Bootstrap 2
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003705 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008374 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.012079 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004082 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00778 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.011862 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003655 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.00661 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010265 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004202 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007623 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011825 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 11 : 1 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002576 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005015 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007591 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002688 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005082 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.00777 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002593 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004963 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007556 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003036 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006004 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.00904 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 14 : 2 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004583 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.009001 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013584 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004038 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.008883 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.012921 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004326 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.008071 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.012397 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003645 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.008203 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011848 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.07, indicating chains have not mixed.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 25 : 3 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004114 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008621 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.012735 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004326 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.008197 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.012523 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003963 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.008271 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.012234 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003933 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007619 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011552 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 38 : 4 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003364 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006249 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009613 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003079 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.008991 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.01207 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.14 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.005071 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007482 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.012553 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003452 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007086 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010538 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 41 : 5 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003558 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006504 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010062 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003377 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006336 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.009713 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003198 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006052 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.00925 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002908 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005037 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007945 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 43 : 6 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.007113 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006354 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013467 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003199 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006351 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.00955 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003416 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006184 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.0096 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002885 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005468 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008353 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 51 : 7 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004239 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00808 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.012319 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004793 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.008264 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.013057 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003819 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.00783 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011649 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004844 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.008077 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.012921 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 55 : 8 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00407 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007543 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011613 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003699 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.012959 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.016658 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004834 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.009437 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.014271 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004318 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007744 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.012062 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 60 : 9 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004229 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007843 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.012072 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004635 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007685 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.01232 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004009 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007778 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011787 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004682 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.008059 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.012741 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.1, indicating chains have not mixed.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 62 : 10 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003354 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006587 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009941 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003234 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006326 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.00956 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003144 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005411 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.008555 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003091 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005476 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008567 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 64 : 11 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00439 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007371 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011761 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004204 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007834 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.012038 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004002 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007269 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011271 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004196 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007575 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011771 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.07, indicating chains have not mixed.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 69 : 12 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002997 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006505 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009502 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003403 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006598 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010001 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003193 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006199 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.009392 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002994 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005304 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008298 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 70 : 13 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002834 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005162 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007996 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002955 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005265 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.00822 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002539 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005188 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007727 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002746 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005007 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007753 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 74 : 14 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003932 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007728 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.01166 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003629 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007991 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.01162 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003664 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007685 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011349 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004345 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.009483 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.013828 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 90 : 15 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00405 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00737 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.01142 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003463 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006632 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010095 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003529 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006688 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010217 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003439 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007025 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010464 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 95 : 16 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.005094 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008818 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013912 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.005095 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.008869 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.013964 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.004314 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007485 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011799 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.00359 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006828 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010418 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 101 : 17 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003569 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007126 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010695 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003339 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007139 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010478 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.00368 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007493 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011173 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004021 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007893 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011914 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 104 : 18 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.005051 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008461 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013512 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003804 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.0069 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010704 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003617 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007343 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.01096 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003675 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007189 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010864 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 105 : 19 out of 40
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 220 / 300 [ 73%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 250 / 300 [ 83%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003631 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.011132 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.014763 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 101 / 300 [ 33%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 130 / 300 [ 43%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 160 / 300 [ 53%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iteration: 190 / 300 [ 63%] (Sampling)
## Chain 2: Iter
```